History doesn't repeat itself, but by God sometimes it rhymes

No direct mockery of media types today. Instead I offer the kind of analysis of the bewildering mayor’s race that’s conspicuously absent in the local media. TV news is incapable of this sort of thing (it’s more than 50 words), everyone at the Times-Union is covering the NFL draft or the Keystone Kops driving of the Sheriff’s Office, and no one at Folio could do it because when they think about the GOP they get so angry they have to punch their Dick Cheney dolls.

Let’s go.

An impressive list of business people have banded together to support Democratic mayoral candidate Alvin Brown. The list, which is at the end of this story, includes past and present leaders from banking, health care, real estate and railroads. I don’t put much stock in endorsements because I don’t believe the average voter looks at a banker (much less another politician) and says to himself, “By God, if Marty Lanahan is for him, I guess I should be too!”

But the endorsement of these people, many of them significant contributors to the GOP, is an indication that there are a lot of Republicans who are unmoved by Mike Hogan. It also made me consider seriously, for the first time, the possibility that Brown could win.

I have been as surprised as any other average voter at the way this race has played out. I did not initially take Hogan’s candidacy seriously. He didn’t make much of an impact as a state representative and has been hiding in plain sight as Tax Collector for the past eight years. But I caught his act many times as a City Councilman in the ’90s, and he struck me as one of the dimmer bulbs on a 19-member Council that didn’t lack for morons. That impression has been cemented by his performance in the campaign.

So how did get to this point, where the only two choices are a Republican deeply mistrusted by the business community and a Democrat the average voter had never heard of four months ago?

The short answer is, miscalculation. The Republicans have collectively screwed the pooch, as evidenced by this political reality: Except under bizarre circumstances, the mayor’s office (and any other prominent citywide office, like Sheriff) is the GOP’s for the taking. The downside of this fact is that it attracts lots of GOP candidates who split the vote.

Which raises a few questions: Was there no one who could have convinced Audrey Moran and Rick Mullaney to unite, one behind the other? Do those two despise each other, or rather, did they despise each other before they started attacking via TV ads? Is John Peyton completely powerless in local GOP circles? (I think I know the answer to that one).

A couple months before the primary I was surprised to hear that Hogan was at 30 percent and Moran and Mullaney at about 15. Like nearly everyone else at that point (except Alvin Brown), I figured the race was between the M&Ms for second place and a shot at Hogan in the runoff.

Hogan’s campaign, it’s now clear, is based on pulling off two very difficult tricks. The first, which was wrapped up before the primary, was to land the endorsements of the unions and the local Tea Party. Are there two more antagonistic players on the political landscape? But somehow they’re both behind Hogan, suggesting that if he wins he will inevitably alienate one or both.

The second effort, which is teetering like a motionless unicyclist, is what I think of as Shielding the Dummy. Hogan, to be charitable, is not impressive when he has to think on his feet. That’s why he ducks debates and his wife gets more screen time in his ads than he does. It’s worked so far because most of the money raised in this campaign was spent by the M&Ms destroying each other with TV ads. But who knows how Hogan’s recent decision to rule out further debates will play with those voters who are just now starting to pay attention?

Finally, as far as I know no one has pointed out the similarities to Nat Glover’s election as Sheriff in 1995. I know, I know, it’s a form of CrimeThink to mention race, but it’s notable that we may get our first black mayor much the same way we got our first black Sheriff. I can’t remember the names, and I’m too lazy to look it up, but there were two high-level white JSO administrators looking to succeed  the retiring incumbent (and the whole thing had a vaguely monarchical feel to it, in a good ole boy sense). They split most of the white vote and Glover, who got out and talked to small groups during the campaign, got all of the black vote and all of the votes of whites who would otherwise have felt guilty voting against the black guy.

Could it happen again?

Ron Littlepage outsources his column

Churning out two columns a week is exhausting. That must be, like, 1,000 words. That’s almost 150 words a day. So for his latest effort, Ron had lunch with somebody older than himself and cribbed stuff the guy had written down, quoted him, lifted a paragraph from a seven-year-old Times-Union obit, and then went off to bugger swine with Jimmy Ray Bob. I only made up one of those things. Let’s have a look at Ron’s cheat sheet.
A friend called earlier this week and asked to meet for lunch.
Brilliant lead. You've really drawn me in.
He is part of the generation that responded so valiantly to the trials of World War II.
My friend fought in Okinawa in one of the bloodiest battles of the war. Understandably, the military is dear to him.
On the way to lunch, he handed me something he had written.
You’ll have to trust me on this, but I promise when I read that sentence I knew Ron was going to delegate this column. I think I’ve been reading him for far too long.
It began: "The recent debacle over the shutdown of one of the most important institutions in our democratic form of government sadly reveals the present values and character of Congress."
The shutdown, as you know, was avoided at the last minute.
If you know that we know, why are you telling us?
"Suppose it had taken place," my friend wrote. "Our esteemed statesmen and stateswomen had decided there would be a delay in delivery of the paychecks of our courageous and brave service men and women who were putting their lives on the line every day so that we can be safe and secure …
Yes, Congress is a group of feckless posers. This is not a new insight. “There is no distinctly native American criminal class -- except Congress,” Twain wrote about 500 years ago.
"Their families at home, wives and husbands with their children, all their dependents, trying desperately to stretch every dollar as far as they can, faced the day when their meager checks would not arrive."
What about the members of Congress?
"The painful answer," my friend wrote, "is to pay themselves their usual salary with all of the enormous fringe benefits at the usual time with no holdbacks, delays or sacrifices.
"How can they look at themselves in the mirror? The rest of us must do it for them - in shame, embarrassment, disgrace, mortification and disgust.
"Where is the character, spirit, compassion, care for others, support of our military, on and on, of the 1940s?"
At this point Ron’s Ancient Mariner friend has written 189 words to Ron’s 81, and much as I’d like to, I can’t say it’s an improvement. But who is this mysterious geezer?
My friend, who doesn't like to see his name in the newspaper, has been prominent in Jacksonville for decades.
So in case you wondered who authored this Those-darn-kids screed, tough. But don’t worry, Ron says he’s prominent.
He knew another of his generation quite well, Charlie Bennett.
Bennett was a veteran, too. He fought in the Philippines and was awarded the Silver Star. He contracted polio there and had to use canes to walk.
After the war, Bennett went on to represent Jacksonville in Congress for 44 years. When Bennett died in 2003, the news story in The Times-Union said:
After writing the preceding 83 words Ron was tuckered out, so it’s back to cutting and pasting.
"During his early service, he refused his congressional paychecks, stating he had simple tastes and didn't need the money. He gave the government back $500,000, including his annual veterans disability benefit. And he refused pay raises totalling $120,000 in his last four years of congressional service."
"Where are the Charlie Bennetts?" my friend wrote. "Once he was called disgustingly honest ... Couldn't we have just a few disgustingly honest senators and representatives these days?
"Thank God some of us old-timers were blessed to live through, and be part of, those wonderful years. God, please give us now more men like those old ones."
Damn young ’uns.
The divisions in Washington are deep. On both sides of the aisle, everything is about party and denigrating what the other side has to say.
My friend wanted to know what I thought. All I could say was that I agreed.
Because to say more would have entailed actually writing a column. How’s this for the good ol’ days, Ron. The great mid-20th century sports columnist Red Smith used to write a column every day.